Advanced FISH Assay and Mechanism Hybrid Surrogate to Improve mRNA Vaccine Potency Assessment and Prediction

The objective of this project is to develop and validate single-molecule RNA-fluorescence in situ hybridization (smFISH), mechanistic & hybrid surrogate model, and PATs for mRNA delivery and translation processes to ensure vaccine efficacy.
Categories
Assays
Process control
Active Immunization Countermeasures

Industry Need

mRNA vaccines have revolutionized biopharmaceuticals, but potency testing remains slow, costly, and highly variable. Current assays lack mechanistic insight, making it difficult to predict performance and ensure consistent quality. Industry needs faster, predictive tools to reduce development timelines and improve manufacturing reliability. These capabilities also support global health by lowering infrastructure demands and minimizing vaccine waste.

Approach

The project developed an integrated platform combining advanced potency assays with a mechanism-informed multi-scale kinetic model. This model predicts mRNA-LNP delivery and expression across nanoparticle, cellular, and population scales, linking dose, LNP size, and cell variability to potency outcomes. Experimental data from smFISH, flow cytometry, and qRT-PCR validated the model, while molecular dynamics simulations connected mRNA structural stability to translation efficiency. Embedded in a digital twin framework, the system enables real-time simulation and predictive quality control, reducing reliance on empirical testing and accelerating process optimization.

Impacts

Enhance the predictive power of the potency of new mRNA vaccines and the immune response of people with different genetic backgrounds.

Improve mRNA vaccine stability and delivery process consistency.

Reduce waste during transportation and distribution.

Form a quick response to new virus variants and ensure mRNA stability and efficacy.

Accelerate the QA/QC screening for multivalent mRNA vaccine potency.

Develop and validate an efficient single-molecule RNA-fluorescence in situ hybridization (smFISH) technique-based potency assay that can track mRNA structural-functional integrity, detect RNA degradation, and monitor mRNA delivery process

Apply molecular dynamics simulations for mRNA structure-function analysis to improve the efficiency and understanding of mRNA translation

Develop a hybrid model and risk/sensitivity/predictive analysis of integrated RNA delivery and translation processes that can integrate heterogeneous measurements, identify critical root causes of the loss of potency, evaluate the value of smFISH measures, and improve the prediction accuracy of mRNA potency

Value Statement/Outcomes

The platform reduced potency testing time by more than 50% and reduce costs by up to 40%. It enables predictive QC for multivalent vaccines without additional wet-lab work and reduces cold-chain dependency, improving access in emerging markets. Validation results show strong predictive performance (R² > 0.9) and accurate dose-response and LNP size optimization.

Outputs/Deliverables

Mechanism-Informed Multi-Scale (MIMS) Model for potency prediction

Validated assays: smFISH, flow cytometry, qRT-PCR

Digital twin integration for real-time simulation

Molecular dynamics simulations for mRNA stability

Publication: Multi-Scale Kinetics Modeling and Advanced Assay for mRNA-LNP Potency Assessment (bioRxiv, 2025)

Publication: RAPTOR-GEN: Bayesian Learning for Biomanufacturing (arXiv, 2025)

Workforce training embedded in BATL programs

Publications

Xu, W., Xie, W., (2025) RAPTOR-GEN: RApid PosTeriOR GENerator for Bayesian Learning in Biomanufacturing, ARXiv, https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2509.20753

Yuchen, Y., Qui, Y., Wang, K., Liu, Y., Sanyal, G., Whitford, P., Rouhanifard, S., & Xie, W. Multi-Scale Kinetics Mideling ad Advanced Assay for mRNA-Lipid Nanoparticle Potency Assessment, BioRxIV, https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.09.29.679406

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Project Lead

Northeastern University

Northeastern University